The number
90% of Morocco's energy is imported. Every dollar added to the price of a barrel of oil lands directly on the national balance sheet.
Context
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development flagged Morocco as one of the most exposed emerging economies to the current energy price shock (EBRD Transition Report, March 2026). With the Middle East conflict pushing Brent crude above $100 per barrel, that exposure is no longer theoretical.
Morocco shut down its only oil refinery, SAMIR, in 2015. Since then, every drop of refined fuel is imported. The country's energy import bill hit MAD 122 billion ($12.2 billion) in 2023, and the current price environment will push that figure significantly higher.
The EBRD projects Morocco's GDP growth at 4.4% for 2026, but warns that a sustained energy shock could shave 0.5 to 1 full percentage point off that figure through higher import costs, inflation, and weaker consumer spending.
The government's response
Head of Government Aziz Akhannouch convened the first session of a dedicated ministerial crisis committee on March 31 to assess the economic fallout. The government announced three immediate measures:
- Butane gas subsidies will be maintained, despite a 68% surge in global butane prices since early March - Electricity bills will be kept stable for households - Transport professionals will receive direct support through April 15, with over 87,000 applications already submitted
These are expensive commitments. Morocco spent MAD 35.6 billion on energy subsidies in the crisis year of 2022 (Ministry of Economy and Finance). A repeat is possible if oil stays above $100 for more than a few months.
How Morocco compares
| Country | Energy import dependency | Key difference |
|---|---|---|
| Morocco | ~90% | No domestic refining since 2015 |
| Turkey | ~75% | Larger economy absorbs shocks better |
| Tunisia | ~50% | Some domestic gas production |
| Egypt | Net exporter | Suez Canal revenue offsets costs |
| Jordan | ~94% | Similar vulnerability to Morocco |
Morocco and Jordan sit at the extreme end of energy dependency among Middle East and North Africa economies. The difference: Morocco's $140 billion economy is more diversified, with phosphate exports and tourism providing partial buffers that Jordan lacks.
Trend
Morocco energy import bill (MAD billions)
The pattern is familiar. In 2022, global energy prices surged during the Russia-Ukraine war and Morocco's energy bill jumped to MAD 153 billion. It eased to MAD 122 billion in 2023 as prices cooled. Now, with oil back above $100, the EBRD estimates suggest 2026 could match or exceed the 2022 peak.
What it means
For investors watching Morocco, the energy bill is the variable to track. The country's growth fundamentals remain solid: phosphate exports, a strong tourism rebound, and $78 billion in planned infrastructure spending before 2030. But every sustained $10 increase in oil prices widens the trade deficit and pressures the dirham.
The government's willingness to absorb costs through subsidies buys social stability but adds fiscal risk. Morocco's budget deficit already hit MAD 34.5 billion through February 2026 (Ministry of Economy and Finance, March 2026). If oil stays elevated through Q3, that deficit will widen further.
Sources: EBRD Transition Report (March 2026), Morocco World News (March 28 and 31, 2026), US International Trade Administration (2025), World Bank energy data (2024), Morocco Ministry of Economy and Finance (2026)
