The number
4.6% full-year GDP growth in 2025, according to data released by the HCP (Haut Commissariat au Plan), Morocco's national statistics agency. That makes 2025 the strongest growth year since 2017, when the economy expanded 4.2%.
What happened
Morocco's economy rode a two-speed year. The first half surged, with Q1 at 4.8% and Q2 hitting 5.5%, the fastest quarterly growth since late 2021. The second half cooled. Q3 slowed to 4.0% and Q4 came in at 4.1%, down marginally from 4.2% in Q4 2024.
The deceleration was not agricultural. Farming rebounded 4.7% in Q4 after contracting 4.8% a year earlier, powered by a strong cereal harvest. The drag came from industry and services. Mining contracted 3.4%, reversing the 1.2% growth posted in Q4 2024. Construction eased to 4.9% from 6.9%. Services slowed across the board, with the tertiary sector dropping from 5.4% to 4.4%.
Two sectors bucked the trend. Manufacturing accelerated to 4.1% from 2.4%, reflecting Morocco's growing automotive and aerospace output. Financial services held at 6.6%, the strongest sectoral performance in Q4.
Quarterly GDP growth, 2025
Trend
Up sharply from 3.8% in 2024. The 4.6% print beat both the IMF's 4.4% forecast and the OECD's 4.5% projection. The HCP projects 5.0% growth for 2026, driven by an exceptional cereal harvest and strong domestic demand.
How Morocco compares
Africa as a whole grew an estimated 3.3% in 2024 and is projected at 3.9% for 2025 (African Development Bank). North Africa averaged 3.6%. South Africa managed 0.8%. Morocco's 4.6% puts it comfortably above its regional peers and above most emerging market benchmarks.
The risk is visible in the second-half slowdown. Oil above $100 per barrel since early March 2026 is squeezing a country that imports 90% of its energy. Mining weakness, partly linked to global commodity volatility, could persist. The question for 2026 is whether agriculture and manufacturing can keep compensating for energy headwinds.
Sources
HCP (Haut Commissariat au Plan) Q4 2025 GDP release, March 2026. Medias24, March 31 2026. Morocco World News, March 31 2026. Barlaman Today, April 1 2026. African Development Bank, African Economic Outlook 2025.
