$389 billion and a lower ranking
Morocco's GDP is projected to reach $389 billion by 2040, up from $178 billion in 2025. That is a 76% increase in 15 years. The country's global economic ranking, however, is expected to slip from 59th to 60th over the same period.
The numbers come from the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR), which publishes annual long-range GDP forecasts for 193 countries. The message is simple: Morocco is growing, but not fast enough to keep pace with the countries behind it.
The growth path is solid but not exceptional
CEBR projects Morocco will grow at an average of 4.0% per year between 2026 and 2030, slowing to 3.8% per year through 2040. GDP per capita would rise from roughly $4,800 today to about $9,095, supporting a growing middle class.
By African standards, this is strong. Morocco is the continent's 5th largest economy, behind South Africa ($444 billion), Egypt ($400 billion), Nigeria ($334 billion), and Algeria ($285 billion) (IMF, 2026 estimates). The gap with Algeria, the nearest rival, is narrowing.
By emerging market standards, it is merely average. India grows at 6.2%. Vietnam at 5.6%. The Philippines at 5.7% (IMF, October 2025). These economies are adding absolute GDP at a rate that will push several of them past Morocco in the global table over the next 15 years.
Why the ranking matters
A GDP ranking is not a scoreboard. But it is a proxy for economic gravity, the ability to attract capital, negotiate trade deals, and command attention in international forums.
Morocco currently sits at 59th, between Slovakia and Ecuador. By 2040, CEBR expects it to fall one place. The drop is small. The signal is not.
For the Moroccan diaspora and international investors, the question is whether $389 billion in 2040 represents a country that outgrew its weight class or one that settled into a comfortable middle tier. The difference depends on structural reforms that the macro numbers do not capture: labor market flexibility, education quality, digital infrastructure, and the transition from state-led investment to private sector-driven growth.
What holds Morocco back
The CEBR report does not detail specific risks, but the constraints are well documented.
First, job creation lags GDP growth. Morocco's unemployment rate has hovered near 12% for a decade, with youth unemployment above 30%. Growth powered by capital-intensive sectors (automotive, phosphates, renewables) creates fewer jobs per unit of GDP than services or tech.
Second, the informal economy remains large. The 2026 Finance Law targets formalization through tax incentives and digital registration, but progress has been slow. Informal firms do not scale, do not export, and do not show up in productivity statistics.
Third, human capital gaps persist. The World Economic Forum flagged weak educational outcomes as a top structural risk for Morocco in its 2026 Global Risks Report. Without a skilled workforce, higher-value industries cannot absorb the workers that lower-value sectors are shedding.
The comparison that matters
The countries most likely to overtake Morocco in the global table are not its African peers. They are mid-sized Asian and Latin American economies with younger populations and faster productivity growth.
Vietnam's GDP was $449 billion in 2025 (already larger than Morocco's). Bangladesh reached $460 billion. Both are growing faster. In Africa, Ethiopia ($126 billion, growing at 7%+) could challenge Morocco's continental position within a decade.
Morocco's advantage is geographic proximity to the EU, a stable political system, and a decade of industrial policy that built real export capacity. The question is whether those advantages compound or plateau.
What this means for diaspora investors
The $389 billion figure is not the story. The story is the growth rate. At 4% average, Morocco doubles its economy in 18 years. At 5%, it doubles in 14 years. That one percentage point of additional growth over 15 years is worth roughly $80 billion in cumulative GDP.
For diaspora professionals weighing investment or return decisions, the CEBR projections suggest Morocco will be richer but relatively less prominent. The sectors that will determine whether Morocco beats the baseline (tech, fintech, education, agritech) are also the sectors with the highest return potential for early investors.
Sources: Centre for Economics and Business Research, World Economic League Table 2026; IMF World Economic Outlook (October 2025); World Bank GDP data (2024); Hespress (February 28, 2026); WEF Global Risks Report 2026.
